By Michael Brand
After Roe V Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, Democrats saw a large increase in the unity of their party. When Lindsay Graham, Republican Senator from South Carolina, introduced a bill looking to “institute a federal ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” it became clear that abortion will be an issue that divides the Republican party (Karni). Within about two months of the case being overturned, the consequences for the political parties have been colossal but contrasting.
Previous to the ruling, Democrats were looking at a midterm election disaster. The combination of a handful of foriegn policy missteps, gas prices soaring, and the lack of an environmental reform package, left democrats with nothing to rally behind. The overturning of Roe V Wade changed that. As Republicans controlled state legislatures attempted to ban abortions, Democratic voters began to see the importance of the next election cycle and began providing donations and support. For example, “on the Democratic fund-raising platform ActBlue, donors gave nearly $6 million in the first few hours after the 6-to-3 Supreme Court decision came down” (Gabriel). This combined with Congress passing a consequential piece of environmental and economic legislation - The Inflation Reduction Act - has given them hope in the midterms.
While Democrats seem to have avoided their midterm disaster, Republicans are on the verge of one. Although Roe V Wade was overturned, the new ruling did not ban abortion; instead it left the choice to do so up to state governments. In “republican-controlled states, recent fights have hinged on whether to add limited exceptions to bills that ban abortion completely” causing divides in the party’s base (Thomson-DeVeaux). When Graham introduced his abortion ban, it became clear that divides could become disastrous. In addition to stirring controversy between Republicans on what the limits on abortion should be, the legislation contradicts the stance of most Republicans that “states, rather than the federal government, should set abortion law” (Breuninger). Though significant blunders, the Democrats are facing an uphill battle to retain control of Congress.
Even with these mistakes it seems likely that the Republicans will gain control of at least one of the houses of Congress in the midterm elections. Although abortion holds a major role in the midterm election, forecasters “see the economy as a huge driver of this midterm” (Douthat et al.). Gas prices, “the most visible inflationary signal to consumers, are expected to continue their fall in the weeks leading up to the election. That could offer at least psychological relief to consumers” but it will not stop Republicans from rallying around a fractured economy (Weisman). When one looks to the past, the future looks bleak for Democrats as “nonpartisan analysts still regard the GOP as the favorites and history shows the president’s party does not tend to do well in a first midterm” (Linksys and Scherer).
Prior to the overturning of Roe V Wade, it looked like there was nothing that Democrats could do to save their midterm election. Their new opportunity comes from Republicans mismanaging a major political issue that has now divided and consumed their party. With a constantly changing political climate, we will not find out if the Democrats are united enough. Republicans are divided, which will result in a midterm outcome no one would have predicted four months ago.
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