By Michael Brand
On Sunday May 29th, Colombia had its first Presidential election where the field of candidates dropped from four to two, with the second and final round of elections scheduled for June 19th. The two candidates remaining, Gustavo Petro a, “former rebel-turned-senator making a bid to be the nation’s first leftist president” and, “Rodolfo Hernández, a former mayor and wealthy businessman with a populist, anti-corruption platform,” remain as the two pontential candidates, representing two radically different futures for the country (Turkewitz).
In Colombia’s election system, there is a first round of elections, in which a candidate needs 50% of the vote to become President. If no candidates receive at least 50% of the vote, then the election proceeds to a second round in which the top two candidates advance. Before the first round, political forecasters had Petro as a lock for the runoff, with conservative establishment candidate Federico Gutiérrez taking the second spot. While forecaster were right about Petro, who took home a little over 40% of the first round vote, when all of the ballots were counted Sunday evening, it was clear they were wrong about Gutiérrez, as Hernández was the choice of conservatives, tallying 28.1% to Gutiérrez’s 24% (Griffin).
Petro has played a part in Colombian politics for almost 30 years, serving in the county’s Congress for two decades, and as Bogotá mayor for four years. His policy proposals like “raising taxes on the rich — and printing money — to pay for anti-poverty programs” as well as stopping, “all new oil exploration and to cut back on coal production, even though these are Colombia's two top exports” have alarmed businesses but have struck support from everyday Colombians looking for change (NPR). Even with his name recognition, and success in the first round, Petro’s route to the presidency will be an uphill battle as historically leftist candidates have had a hard time winning elections in Colombia, as the power lies in the hands conservative political elite controlled by a handful of corrupt corporations.
What makes this runoff so interesting however, is that the conservative political elite candidate, Gutiérrez, was knocked out in the first round. His spot was taken by Hernández, a right-wing, anti-corruption, and anti-establishment candidate, making the race runoff between two candidates looking to radically change the political power dynamic that has defined the country for decades. Hernández, a businessman himself, has pledged to be anti-corruption, and with no political experience in Congress, he comes off as a candidate who will drain the swamp. However, while he was mayor of Bucaramanga he faced, “charges from Colombia’s attorney general’s office accusing him of improperly giving out contracts for waste management as mayor” (Schmidt). With no concrete policy behind him, Hernández relied on Tiktok and one-liners like, he was “the only one who is capable of removing the thieves from power,” to rally support. Although controversial, his campaign stands a fair chance against Petro. With Gutiérrez out of the running, the election will come down to whether Gutiérrez’s original supporters flock to the radical Hernández and if conservative politicians and corporations will support him even with the risk he brings to corporations and the establishment.
This election is closer than it seems. Although Petro held a 12-point advantage in the first round, most of Gutiérrez’s supporters, who hold 24% of the vote, will sway to Hernández in fear that Petro will not be able to crack down on corruption or will hurt Colombia’s economy in the process. The winner of the election will define Colombian politics in this new era away from the conservative, corporation-supported politicians who were able to define, dictate and direct the political scene for the last four decades.
Edited by Eloise So
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