by Maxwell Xu and Michael Brand
When the war started on February 24th, most feared that Ukraine would fall in less than a heartbeat. If this war was similar to those of a century ago, where what mattered was the number of troops and the power of your artillery, it would have been over in just over a heartbeat. However, now three months into the war, it is not over, because wars fought in the 21st century are not won or lost based on the army size or strength of artillery, but instead are decided based on the strength of more complicated tools, like technology. The war has been shaped by the uses of technology like social media, cyber-attacks, and autonomous attacks, to the point where it has been deemed “World Cyber War 1.” Here is how some of these pieces of technology have played out for each side.
Rallying support for a war in the middle of a pandemic is hard, especially when that same war does not end quickly and has a high cost to the Russian economy. To overcome these challenges, the Russian government has spread disinformation and propaganda in an attempt to preserve support. This strategy, of spreading disinformation and propaganda is not new as a war tactic, but the medium it is done through is relatively new. Russia in the past found success in this strategy, spreading disinformation about the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and spreading propaganda about the United States election in 2016. Yet, its tactics seemed to have failed in 2022. Russia has won on the front of TikTok – mainly due to the fact it is Chinese controlled – spreading numerous amounts of disinformation on the social media platform. But it has lost on the fronts of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Google as all four United States-owned sites have found stronger ways to control disinformation and stop it from spreading. Additionally, as Sara Brown of MIT points out, Ukraine has won the battle over quality and believability as its media focuses on “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy walking around devastated cities, emphasizing his leadership and willingness to stay and fight,” where “Russia has been airing ‘rambling’ addresses by president Vladimir Putin, or footage of Putin sitting at a desk.” What Russia has failed to realize is that using 21st-century tools does not work with 20th-century tactics and as a result, the battle over social media has been a surprising defeat for them.
As the Russian government has failed to effectively use social media to spread disinformation and propaganda to muster support for their cause, their military has been using more direct methods to cripple Ukraine’s infrastructure. Notorious for its employment of computer hackers and cyberwarfare specialists, Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities, financial institutions, and internet service providers (ISPs) as reported by top cybersecurity officials in the Ukrainian government. Cybersecurity specialists within the Ukrainian government have attempted to defend against incoming cyberattacks from Russia, with some success. In early April, intelligence officers and IT experts employed by the Ukrainian government successfully stopped an attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The United States Department of State has responded to this increase in cyberattacks by Russia. In early May, Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken claimed the United States’ commitment to upholding the "rules-based international order in cyberspace.” Furthermore, Blinken stated the country’s intentions to support Ukraine in its efforts in countering Russian cyberwarfare.
The most notable technology that is shaping the Russo-Ukrainian War would be the use of artificial intelligence (A.I.) by both sides of the conflict. To begin with, experts have speculated about the use of A.I. in Russia’s propaganda campaigns. More specifically, “deepfakes”–incredibly realistic synthesized videos that feature edited faces–may play a role in spreading disinformation on social media platforms. In order to combat this, A.I. algorithms may be used to detect Russian disinformation and social media corporations may be able to effectively shut them down. More worrisome is the usage of A.I. powered lethal autonomous weapons systems–weapons in which computers injure, damage, and kill on battlefields. In the past, Russia has used lethal autonomous weapons in Syria and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has stated the importance of A.I. in the power dynamics of the future. Despite this, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) has deemed Russia to be behind the United States and China in utilizing artificial intelligence with regard to warfare. The world has seen how various forms of technology have played both a direct and indirect role in the Russo-Ukrainian War, though it is still yet to be seen to what extent cutting edge and dangerous technologies will be used in a military capacity and how they will shape the world order in the next decades.
Comments